What is Weighted Forecasting?
Weighted forecasting corrects the core flaw of raw pipeline: treating a brand-new deal the same as one about to sign. It discounts each deal by its odds.
It is a solid default for most B2B teams, but it is one input to a forecast, not the whole thing, because it captures probability without a rep's read on timing and risk.
Short answer
Weighted forecasting estimates a period's revenue by multiplying each open deal's value by its probability of closing, then summing. Probabilities come from stage, a scoring model, or both. The result is a risk-adjusted number that sits between raw pipeline and zero and is more realistic than total open pipeline for predicting bookings.
Key takeaways
- Each deal is multiplied by a close probability, then summed.
- Probabilities come from stage, a model, or both.
- Produces a conservative, risk-adjusted revenue estimate.
- One input to a forecast, not a complete forecast alone.
Why it matters
Raw pipeline overstates what will close, so leaders need a risk-adjusted number to compare against quota. Weighted forecasting provides it without judging every deal by hand, which makes it a practical everyday tool.
How Ardovo handles it
Ardovo weights every deal by stage probability automatically and lets reps override per deal, while Rook refines the weighting with engagement and buying-committee signals rather than stage alone.
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between weighted forecasting and a weighted pipeline?
They describe the same math: multiplying each deal by its probability and summing. Weighted pipeline names the resulting figure; weighted forecasting names the method of producing a forecast from it.
Is weighted forecasting accurate?
It is more realistic than raw pipeline but not complete on its own. It captures probability but misses timing and rep judgment, so the best teams reconcile it against a rep-commit roll-up.
What probability should I use for each deal?
Start with the deal's stage probability from your conversion history, then adjust for real signals like engagement or a stalled late-stage deal that deserves a lower weight.