What is Weighted Pipeline?
Weighted Pipeline is a core concept in modern B2B revenue. Here is a clear, accurate definition, why it matters, and how Ardovo handles it.
Short answer
Weighted pipeline multiplies each open deal's value by its probability of closing, then sums the results. A 50,000 dollar deal at 40 percent contributes 20,000 dollars. It produces a risk-adjusted revenue estimate that is more realistic than raw pipeline value for forecasting a period's likely bookings.
Key takeaways
- Each deal value is multiplied by a close probability.
- Probabilities usually come from the deal's stage or a scoring model.
- Produces a risk-adjusted number between raw pipeline and zero.
- More conservative and forecast-friendly than total open pipeline.
Why it matters
Raw pipeline overstates what will actually close; weighting corrects for it. It gives leaders a single realistic number to compare against quota without manually judging every deal.
How Ardovo handles it
Ardovo weights pipeline by stage probability automatically and lets you override per deal. Rook refines the weighting with real signals like engagement and buying committee coverage, not just the stage a rep parked the deal in.
Frequently asked questions
Where do the probabilities come from?
Most teams assign a default win probability to each pipeline stage. More advanced setups use a model that scores each deal on engagement, fit, and history.
Is weighted pipeline the same as a forecast?
It is one input to a forecast, not the whole thing. Good forecasts also use rep commit judgment, historical accuracy, and category rollups alongside the weighted number.