What is New Business Forecast?
New business forecasting isolates the hardest revenue to win: brand-new customers. Blending it with renewals hides how acquisition is really doing.
Because new-logo deals convert differently from expansion, separating the two produces a clearer, more actionable forecast for each.
Short answer
A new business forecast projects revenue expected from net-new customers in a period, kept separate from renewals and expansion. Isolating it shows how well new-logo acquisition is performing on its own, uncontaminated by the base. Because new business usually has lower win rates and longer cycles than expansion, forecasting it separately gives a truer read on acquisition health.
Key takeaways
- Projects revenue from net-new customers only.
- Kept separate from renewals and expansion.
- Isolates new-logo acquisition performance.
- New business has lower win rates than expansion.
Why it matters
New-logo acquisition and base expansion behave differently, so blending them masks problems. A separate new business forecast reveals whether your engine for winning brand-new customers is healthy or stalling.
How Ardovo handles it
Ardovo separates new business from expansion and renewal in forecasting, so Rook can show new-logo performance on its own and flag when acquisition is slipping even while total revenue looks fine on the strength of the base.
Frequently asked questions
What is a new business forecast?
It projects revenue from net-new customers in a period, separate from renewals and expansion. Isolating it shows how new-logo acquisition is performing on its own rather than being masked by revenue from the existing base.
Why separate new business from expansion?
Because they behave differently: new-logo deals typically have lower win rates and longer cycles than expansion into existing accounts. Forecasting them separately gives a clearer, more actionable read on each.
Which is easier to forecast, new business or expansion?
Expansion is usually easier and higher-converting because you already have a relationship and usage data. New business is harder, with more uncertainty, which is exactly why isolating its forecast matters.