How to set forecast categories
Forecast categories bucket deals by confidence so a forecast becomes a range with meaning. They only work if the definitions are objective and applied consistently. Vague categories let each rep interpret commit however they like, and the forecast becomes noise.
Short answer
Set forecast categories by defining clear, objective criteria for commit, best case, pipeline, and omitted, so every rep applies them the same way. Commit means high-confidence, closing this period with a real event; best case is a stretch; pipeline is possible but unlikely. Enforce the definitions and measure how each category converts.
Step by step
Define the standard categories
Use a common set and define each precisely.
- Commit: high confidence, closing this period, real event and paper path
- Best case: achievable stretch if things go right
- Pipeline: open and possible but not expected this period
- Omitted or closed: excluded from the forecast
Write objective entry criteria
Tie each category to verifiable facts, such as an engaged economic buyer and a confirmed close event for commit, so it is not a feeling.
Train the team to one standard
Walk every rep through the definitions so commit means the same thing across the whole team.
Measure category conversion
Track how often commit, best case, and pipeline deals actually close. If commit converts at 60 percent, the definition is too loose.
Recalibrate the definitions
Tighten criteria based on conversion data until each category converts at a rate that matches its label.
How Ardovo helps
Ardovo enforces forecast-category criteria on each deal and reports how every category actually converts, so Rook can tell you whether your commit definition is holding or leaking, and prompt reps when a category assignment is not supported by the deal facts.
Frequently asked questions
What are the standard sales forecast categories?
Commit (high confidence, closing this period), best case (an achievable stretch), pipeline (open but not expected this period), and omitted or closed. The exact labels vary, but the goal is a confidence-ranked set with objective criteria applied consistently.
What should qualify a deal as commit?
An engaged economic buyer, a close date tied to a buyer-confirmed event, a clear paper path, and a scheduled next step. Commit should mean you would bet on it. If commit deals routinely slip, the criteria are too loose.
How do I know if my forecast categories are working?
Measure how each category converts. Commit should close at a high, consistent rate; best case lower; pipeline lowest. If commit deals convert like best-case deals, your definitions are too loose and need tightening against the conversion data.