How to calculate deal slippage
Deal slippage is the gap between when deals were forecast to close and when they actually do. Chronic slippage is a forecasting cancer: it means close dates are guesses, and every quarter borrows from the next. Measuring it exposes the root cause.
Short answer
Calculate deal slippage by measuring how many deals, or how much value, forecast to close in a period actually pushed to a later period instead of closing or dying. For example, 300,000 dollars of a 1 million dollar commit slipping to next quarter is 30 percent slippage. High slippage signals weak qualification or fake close dates.
Step by step
Snapshot the forecasted close dates
At the start of the period, record which deals and how much value are committed to close in it.
Track what actually happened
At period end, categorize each committed deal as won, lost, or slipped to a later period.
- Slippage rate = value slipped / value forecast to close
- Track by rep and stage
- Distinguish slipped from lost
Calculate the slippage rate
Divide the value that slipped by the value forecast to close. Do this by rep and by stage to find patterns.
Diagnose the cause
Persistent slippage usually means fake close dates, weak qualification, or a decision process the rep never mapped. Each has a different fix.
Tighten close-date discipline
Require that every close date be tied to a buyer-confirmed event, and coach reps whose deals slip repeatedly.
How Ardovo helps
Ardovo snapshots forecasted close dates and tracks slippage by rep and stage automatically, so Rook can flag deals with close dates that are not backed by a buyer-confirmed event before they slip, and show which reps chronically push deals.
Frequently asked questions
What causes deal slippage?
Usually fake close dates set to fill a forecast, weak qualification that let a non-ready deal in, or an unmapped decision process with approval steps the rep never accounted for. Slippage is a symptom of optimism replacing discipline.
Is a slipped deal the same as a lost deal?
No. A slipped deal moves to a later period but is still alive; a lost deal is dead. Track them separately, because chronic slippage indicates a forecasting and qualification problem, while losses indicate a competitive or fit problem.
How do I reduce deal slippage?
Require every close date to be tied to a buyer-confirmed event or milestone, map the full decision and paper process in deal reviews, and coach reps whose deals repeatedly push. Honest close dates are the foundation of an accurate forecast.