How to calculate the committed forecast
The committed forecast is the most conservative and most important forecast number, because it represents a promise, not a hope. Leadership plans on it, so its integrity is essential.
Commit should mean something specific: the rep is confident this deal closes this period, backed by evidence. When commit becomes optimistic pipeline, the forecast loses its meaning.
- Closed + commit deals The formula
- The forecast floor What leadership counts on
- Backed by evidence Commit must mean something
Short answer
The committed forecast is the revenue you are confident will close in the period: the sum of deals reps have placed in the commit category plus revenue already closed. It is the forecast floor, the number leadership counts on. Keep it honest by requiring a named economic buyer and a close plan for every commit deal.
Step by step
Sum already-closed revenue
Start with revenue already closed won in the period. This is locked in.
Add commit-category deals
Add the value of open deals reps have placed in the commit forecast category, the deals they are confident will close this period.
Pressure-test each commit
Require a named economic buyer, a close plan, and recent buyer activity for every commit deal. A commit without these is a hope, not a commit.
Report as the floor
Present the committed forecast as the floor, with best case and pipeline as upside above it. Track how commit converts to closed to calibrate its reliability.
Worked example
This quarter you have already closed 1,200,000 dollars. Reps have placed eight deals worth 900,000 dollars in commit.
Committed forecast = 1,200,000 plus 900,000 = 2,100,000 dollars. If history shows commit deals close 90 percent of the time, the realistic commit-based expectation is about 2,010,000 dollars. Tracking that conversion keeps the commit category honest over time.
How Ardovo handles it
Ardovo rolls up the committed forecast from closed and commit-category deals and pressure-tests each commit against real signals. Rook flags commits with no named economic buyer or no recent activity, so the floor leadership counts on is genuinely reliable.
Frequently asked questions
What is the committed forecast?
The revenue you are confident will close in the period: already-closed revenue plus deals reps have placed in the commit category. It is the forecast floor that leadership counts on, so each commit should be backed by evidence.
What makes a deal a valid commit?
A named economic buyer, a real close plan, and recent buyer activity showing the deal is on track to close this period. Without these, a commit is optimism, not a commitment, and it undermines the forecast floor.
How is commit different from best case?
Commit is revenue the rep promises will close this period and forms the forecast floor. Best case is realistic upside that could close but is not certain. Commit is counted on; best case is potential above it.